The period between finishing your Year 12 exams and receiving your results can be excruciating.
After all, it feels like you’re waiting for the number that will determine your entire future (helpful hint: it probably won’t).
And sure, patience is a virtue. But ain’t nobody got time for that – not if there’s a reasonable way to estimate your ATAR in advance. Besides, the sooner you know what your ATAR might be – even if it’s an educated guess – the sooner you can work out which university programs you can get into.
ATAR predictions can be a bit fickle, however, which is why we want to give you a little context around how they're calculated first, and what you should consider when estimating yours.
How is the ATAR calculated?
In Queensland, ATARs are calculated by the Queensland Tertiary Admissions Centre (or QTAC – you’ve probably heard of them once or twice).
The calculation is based on the best grades you achieve in units 3 and 4 (Year 12) across either:
- 5 general subjects, or
- 4 general subjects plus 1 applied subject or a VET qualification (Certificate III or higher).
Considering most students take 6 subjects in Year 12, this means 1 subject (the one you performed least well in) will not go towards your ATAR.
Keep in mind that while it's mandatory for you to take an English subject and achieve a grade C or higher in it to be eligible to receive an ATAR, your English subject may not be included in the calculation of your ATAR if it's not one of your top 5 subjects.
What does this mean for estimating your ATAR?
Well, if you’ve completed 6 general subjects, for example, you can leave out the subject you’ve done the least well in. It’s like a free pass.
However, keep in mind that some subjects scale more favourably than others. If your “worst” 2 subjects are quite close in score, it’s worth including them both when calculating your ATAR – the one that looks lower in theory might actually bump up your ATAR more than the other. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Let's dive into how to calculate your ATAR to get an educated estimate of what it'll be.
How do I estimate my ATAR?
So, here’s the catch. Your ATAR is a ranking. To accurately calculate your ATAR, you’d need to predict not just your own final results but everyone’s final results. Maybe you have a decent idea where you fall in your own school group, but it’s harder to guess your position across the whole state.
Are ATAR calculators accurate?
Some websites offer ATAR calculators, but we don’t recommend relying on these – the state’s overall performance this year could be wildly different from the years these calculators use to estimate your ATAR, which means the prediction you get could be significantly higher or lower than your actual result.
Luckily, what you can estimate is your final Year 12 score, which will then be used to calculate your ATAR.
The trick here is thinking about your assessment scores (which you already know) compared to your exam scores (which you don’t). This is where some intuition comes in. How confident and comfortable did you feel during the exams? Do you tend to thrive under test conditions, or do you usually do better in assessments?
Based on what you know about yourself, you might estimate that your exam scores will be slightly lower than, slightly higher than, or around the same as your assessment marks. You can then combine these exam predictions with your assessment grades to estimate your final result.
Remember: in Queensland, most general subject marks are 75% assessment and 25% final exams. The exceptions are maths and science subjects, which are 50/50.
So if you're wondering 'can you get a good ATAR with bad internal marks?', it is possible, but that depends largely on what subjects you took, and just how low your marks were for your internal assessments, compared to external exams.
Example 1: Ancient History
You’ve scored 84, 89 and 95 on your assessments. You’ve always preferred project work, research and prepared essays, so you estimate that you might score a slightly lower 80 in your exam. By dividing each of your scores by 4, you calculate your likely final mark as follows:
| Assessment | Score /100 | Final mark contribution |
|---|---|---|
| Assessment 1 | 84 | 21 / 25 |
| Assessment 2 | 88 | 22 / 25 |
| Assessment 3 | 96 | 24 / 25 |
| External exam | 80 | 20 / 25 |
| TOTAL | 87 / 100 |
You expect around 87 for your Ancient History score.
Example 2: General Mathematics
Your total school marks from all assessments come to 82. However, you know you perform quite well under pressure – and you really focused on revising your maths during the last month before the exam. The questions all made sense to you, and you left the exam feeling quietly confident. You optimistically estimate an 86. Then, you divide both scores by 2 to get a final estimate.
| Assessment | Score /100 | Final mark contribution |
|---|---|---|
| Internal assessment | 82 | 41 / 50 |
| External assessment | 86 | 43 / 50 |
| TOTAL | 84 / 100 |
You expect around 84 for your General Mathematics score.
So, what now?
If you’ve got estimated final scores for all your subjects, you may be able to ask your school for advice on what ATAR to expect. Teachers who have seen many Year 12 cohorts come and go might have a keen intuition about where your scores could land you. But, again, we must stress to take any guesses with a grain of salt – even your wisest teacher isn’t omniscient.
The unfortunate truth is that you can’t know for sure what your ATAR will be until that fateful morning arrives.
When are ATARs released?
Keep an eye on QTAC's key dates webpage to see when 2024 ATARs will be released.
The last word
Trying to estimate your ATAR will always come with a risk of disappointment or the chance of a pleasant surprise. It’s impossible to predict your exact exam results, and you can never know if your year group is going to dramatically overperform or underperform compared to previous year groups.
But if you really need to scratch that itch before official results are released, making some educated guesses about your final scores can help you get an idea of where you might land – and hopefully alleviate some of your anxiety.
Just don’t put all your eggs in one basket based on your ATAR prediction. Consider what your backup options will be if your final result doesn’t quite meet your expectations.
